NASA/Caltech computer model predicts dramatic changes to Earth's ecosystem by 2100. December 23, 2011.
A new computer model developed by a team of scientists under Jon Bergengren and published in the journal Climatic Change has suggested that by 2100 a warmer climate will influence change in plant communities covering nearly half the world's surface, while driving 40% from one major ecological type to another. Overall, biomes will likely migrate towards the poles and higher elevations. The study, which has received significant media attention, also predicts that the severing of ties between closely connected and often endangered plant and animal seasons will lower biodiversity and change Earth's natural cycles. The model employs the intermediate scenario described by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which initial returns suggest has dramatically understated the future emissions of greenhouse gases.
Of course, the essential weakness of these models rests in their inability to accommodate for changes in vegetation driven by other human activities. Furthermore, what is needed is a better understanding of how changes vegetation have accompanied climatic fluctuations in the past. When examining the influence of climatic changes historical climatologists generally explore relationships between human populations and prevailing weather, and shifts in flora or fauna are considered either for their influence on human beings or their ability to provide further insight into atmospheric developments. If changes in plant and animal life were considered important in their own right - and worthy of the kind of interdisciplinary insights historical climatologists can provide - our ability to model or, at least, conceptualize the future could be much improved.
Of course, the essential weakness of these models rests in their inability to accommodate for changes in vegetation driven by other human activities. Furthermore, what is needed is a better understanding of how changes vegetation have accompanied climatic fluctuations in the past. When examining the influence of climatic changes historical climatologists generally explore relationships between human populations and prevailing weather, and shifts in flora or fauna are considered either for their influence on human beings or their ability to provide further insight into atmospheric developments. If changes in plant and animal life were considered important in their own right - and worthy of the kind of interdisciplinary insights historical climatologists can provide - our ability to model or, at least, conceptualize the future could be much improved.